College Football 12 Pack: Week 4 (Sep 26, 2020) Picks
Game 1: #3 Oklahoma vs Kansas State (12:00, FOX)
Nick: Oklahoma- The Sooners will not lose this contest for the second season in a row. I was stunned they lost it last year, and I would be even more shocked if they lost again in 2020. Lincoln Riley has the only team that could possibly make the CFP in the always overrated B12.
Sam: Oklahoma-- You would think after last year’s debacle in Manhattan that this would get the Sooners’ full attention. Spencer Rattler is just the next toy in the machine that is Lincoln Riley’s system. Love watching this offense.
Zach: Oklahoma- Spencer Rattler is the next exciting quarterback for the Sooners, but he has big shoes to fill and in the season opener he did not disappoint. The game last year in Manhattan was absolutely nuts as Skylar Thompson ran all over the Sooners and Oklahoma’s onside kick recovery was overturned. There is no way that the Wildcats can do it again
Game 2: Ole Miss vs #5 Florida (12:00, ESPN)
Nick: Florida- I love Kiffin at Ole Miss, and I think he is going to be successful (though the SEC West is a gauntlet). The fact that they don’t have a clear starting quarterback (the depth chart has Matt Corral or John Rhys Plumlee as co-starters), is troubling as they play a #5 team.
Sam: Florida-- This of all years is one where it’s so vital to have both a returning coach and starting QB. Not only does Florida have this, but they have two darn good ones with Dan Mullen and Kyle Trask. The chess match between Florida DC Todd Grantham and the Lane train will be an interesting one to watch.
Zach: Florida- There are very few ways that the Lane Kiffin era at Ole Miss could’ve had a tougher start. This Florida team is a legit CFP contender as long as Kyle Trask stays healthy. The Gators should have no problem in the season opener.
Game 3: #8 Auburn vs #23 Kentucky (12:00, SEC)
Nick: Auburn- The Bo Nix dark horse Heisman campaign starts with a game against a ranked team, the first of six currently on the schedule. They play Alabama, LSU and Georgia, so the impact games will be there. But it can all come to a crashing halt with a week one loss. Thankfully, that won’t happen this week.
Sam: Auburn-- Underrated hire this offseason by Auburn picking up former Arkansas coach Chad Morris to run its offense. To say things didn’t go well in Fayetteville would be an understatement, but you can’t dispute how good of an offensive coach Morris is from his time as Clemson’s playcaller. Bo Nix back with some weapons? This Auburn team could be scary
Zach: Auburn- Bo Nix had a very solid freshman campaign last season, and he once again leads a very talented Auburn Tigers team. Kentucky, coming off a successful past few seasons, may be in store for a tough go around this year. I expect the Tigers to win by a few scores.
Game 4: #21 Pittsburgh vs #24 Louisville (12:00, ACC)
Nick: Pittsburgh- These two teams have played great early in the season, and with the new ACC Championship format (top two conference records, no divisions), the second spot has many contenders (Miami FL, North Carolina, Notre Dame as well) behind Clemson. The winner of this game will go a long way in reaching that spot. I like Narduzzi’s defensive schemes to slow Malik Cunningham, although Kenny Pickett will need to play more consistently.
Sam: Louisville-- The Cards had more than a few coverage busts against Miami last week, but I think they’ll bounce back here. Malik Cunningham is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in all the nation, and I think he shows that in this one against a stingy D.
Zach: Louisville- Coming off of a very difficult game against one of the ACC’s best in Miami, the Cards get a nice bounce back win heading into the middle of their season. I really like Malik Cunningham, the dual threat that he is, and he has the potential to take over any game
Game 5: TCU vs Iowa State (1:30, FS1)
Nick: TCU- Zach hits the nail on the head here. TCU has to be amped to finally get on the field after multiple weeks off. Also, Brock Purdy looked terrible against Louisiana. Can he rebound against a Gary Patterson defense? I’m doubting that he can.
Sam: Iowa State--- I think TCU is taking an MSU like step back. They were very good and contenders just a few years ago, but have struggled of late. Does Gary Patterson still have it? This season will definitely tell. Iowa State was embarrassed by a (very good, mind you) group of 5 team in week 1. I don’t see Matt Campbell letting that happen to his team again.
Zach: TCU- In their first game of the season two weeks ago, Iowa State was upset by Louisiana and even though they have had weeks to prepare for this one, TCU will have the juice going for them with this being their season opener. Max Duggan is back for the Horned Frogs and in a quarterback loaded conference, he is very overlooked. Look for him to start off the 2020 season with a strong outing against a subpar Big 12 defense
Game 6: #15 Oklahoma State vs West Virginia (3:30, ABC)
Nick: Oklahoma State- Spencer Sanders’ health will be a huge question mark for this game, but ultimately Chuba Hubbard will still have a lasting impact offensively. I think the Big 12 is an extremely weak conference, so one of it’s top three teams should be able to handle one of the lesser seven, especially at home.
Sam: Oklahoma State-- As the other two touched on, it goes without saying how important Sanders’ health is here. Regardless, Chuba Hubbard last I checked is still pretty darn good. It could be ugly without Sanders, but the Pokes will get it done in Morgantown.
Zach: Oklahoma State- Even with Spencer Sanders’ status unknown for this game and the scare of last week when Bullock and Illingworth came in relief, avoiding the upset, this Cowboys team, I believe this team is a contender for the CFP behind one of the best backs in the country in Chuba Hubbard. Even with it only being their second game, this is a must win for the Pokes.
Game 7: Texas Tech vs #8 Texas (3:30, FOX)
Nick: Texas- Zach for sure, and probably Sam too, will talk about Sam Ehlinger and how he is some incredible QB. I refuse to buy into this hype, as he shredded UTEP (a team that gave up 430 yards of offense per game last year). He will win this game too, because Texas Tech yielded 567 passing yards to Houston Baptist’s Bailey Zappe two weeks ago, but I still want to see him perform consistently against real teams (only about 225 yards per game with one touchdown and two interceptions against his last three ranked teams). Luckily for Ehlinger, this is one of many B12 defenses that is atrocious.
Sam: Texas-- Tom Herman hit the reset button this year by swapping out both coordinators. I loved the hire of Mike Yurcich to run the offense, and it looked like it paid off in week 1 at least. I think Ehlinger will carve up what can only be described as a soft TT defense.
Zach: Texas- Sam Ehlinger is an absolute stud, I have been saying it for years and he is finally playing more like the guy I always thought he could be. He is going to have a field day with this Red Raider defense
Game 8: #14 Cincinnati vs #22 Army (3:30, ESPN)
Nick: Army- The Black Knights are on the road, but I like them to pull off this victory. They ran for 340 yards in their opener (albeit against MTSU), while Cincinnati didn’t silence the Austin Peay attack (3.8 YPC). I think this Army team is special, and playing in their biggest game of the season, they deliver a stunning road win. Luke Fickell has his hands full game planning this week for the triple-option rushing attack that had seven players rush for 25+ yards.
Sam: Cincinnati- Desmond Ridder is a very unheralded QB but he was solid all last year for Cincy. Pair that with a really stout D, and I think the Bearcats slug their way to a win.
Zach: Cincinnati- If Army can win this game, they will finish this season undefeated. However, I do not think that will be the case. Even though the Bearcats run defense was a little below average against Austin Peay, their offense is really good. If they can make the most of the little time they will have the ball and get some key stops on defense, they should get the job done at home.
Game 9: #10 Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt (7:30, SEC Alt)
Nick: Texas A&M- This shouldn’t even be close. We added this to the 12 Pack after Notre Dame was cancelled, and I don’t even know what to say beyond the fact that Vanderbilt just isn’t going to even be close.
Sam: Texas A&M- Nut up or shut up time for Kellen Mond. All we’ve heard about for 3 years is the potential he has. Well, he’s a senior now, it’s time for him to make that leap. As an aside, I really like Derrick Mason, but if he goes winless this season, it’s hard to see him still having a job in December.
Zach: Texas A&M- Uphill battle might be a huge understatement for the Commodores in this game. Kellen Mond is back for his fourth year at A&M and he will dominate this game from start to finish, or at least until he is pulled out in the third quarter
Game 10: #12 Miami FL vs Florida State (7:30, ABC)
Nick: Miami FL- I still don’t trust the Hurricanes, but wow Florida State is still down. Without Mike Norvell, they will surely be discombobulated, and that should lead to a comfortable win for D’Eriq King and company.
Sam: Miami FL- Ya know, it’s amazing what happens when teams with great athletes finally run offenses to showcase that talent (see LSU 2019). Rhett Lashlee and D’Eriq King has been a great marriage thus far, and King has a bevy of weapons at his disposal including a tight end in Brevin Jordan who’s going to be playing on Sundays soon.
Zach: Miami FL- The 1-2 punch of D’Eriq King and Cam’Ron Harris has looked very impressive this season through two games. Expect a few appearances from the Turnover Chain.
Game 11: South Carolina vs #16 Tennessee (7:30, SEC)
Nick: South Carolina- S/O to Catie for going to South Carolina. I can’t ever buy into the preseason hype surrounding the Vols. I’ll pick against Tennessee until they prove me wrong. Do you remember the Georgia State game last year?
Sam: Tennessee- Nick can say whatever he wants, but the Vol’s defense is legit. Trey Smith and Georgia transfer Cade Mays anchor a strong offensive line. New coordinator Mike Bobo could bring a bit of needed excitement to the Carolina offense, but Will Muschamp gives me no confidence.
Zach: Tennessee- As bad as Jarrett Guarantano played at times last year, I still believe he has the stuff to make this Volunteer team very successful this season. I know there is always an absurd amount of preseason hype for Tennessee every single season, but this year is different. Big Jarrett Guarantano guy.
Game 12: #20 Virginia Tech vs NC State (8:00, ACC)
Nick: Virginia Tech- Justin Fuente has kept the positive momentum as a program, and they will be ready to finally play this fall (much like TCU). ZT hit it on the head, NC State struggled with a bad Wake Forest team. They won’t go on the road and beat Virginia Tech.
Sam: NC State-- While the defense really struggled against Wake, the offense looked rejuvenated under new coordinator Tim Beck. I also have a big time problem with Justin Fuente. He came out and openly complained about players going in and out of the transfer portal, then two weeks later interviewed for the Baylor head coaching job. That’s not a good look for a guy who has a pretty stale program currently.
Zach: Virginia Tech- NC State barely beat Wake Forest last week and they aren’t very good. The Hokies roll the Wolfpack.
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